Sarah Bennett
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the pandemic began, SARS-CoV-2 has undergone rapid mutations, resulting in various strains, such as the Delta and Omicron variants. These mutations have, to varying degrees, impacted the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. While the vaccines have been updated to target new variants, the constant evolution of the virus raises concerns about their ability to prevent all strains. For instance, the recent COVID-19 strain, dubbed FLiRT, is feared to be harder to stop with current vaccines. However, updated COVID-19 vaccines are expected to offer better protection against severe illness, hospitalization, and death, even as the virus continues to evolve.
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What You'll Learn
The 2024-2025 vaccine's effectiveness against new strains
The 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccines are designed to protect against predominant circulating strains and their descendants, including the highly infectious XFG variant, also known as "Stratus". The vaccines target the JN.1 lineage variants, which replaced the older XBB-lineage variants targeted by the previous year's vaccines. The Novavax (Nuvaxovid) vaccine, for instance, has been updated to target the JN.1 strain and is authorized for individuals aged 12 and older.
The 2024-2025 vaccines were engineered to combat the ever-changing nature of the virus and restore protection that naturally fades over time. They are monovalent, meaning they contain a single component targeting one primary viral target. While the vaccines cannot provide complete protection against infection, they are highly effective in preventing severe illness, hospitalizations, and deaths. CDC studies have shown that the updated vaccines offer significant additional protection compared to not receiving current-season doses. For instance, they are 45-46% effective in preventing hospitalization in immunocompetent adults aged 65 and older, and 40% effective for immunocompromised adults in the same age group.
The Novavax vaccine takes a unique approach by containing the spike protein of the coronavirus itself, formulated as a nanoparticle that cannot cause disease. Its 2024-2025 updated vaccine targets the JN.1 variant and has demonstrated broad cross-neutralizing antibodies against multiple variant strains, including JN.1, KP.2, and KP.3. The Novavax vaccine stimulates the immune system to produce antibodies and T-cell immune responses.
While the 2024-2025 vaccines were designed to combat the strains expected to be common during that period, the virus's ability to mutate and evade immunity is a constant challenge. As such, annual updates to COVID-19 vaccines are now treated similarly to seasonal flu shots, with the next evolution of vaccines already being discussed for the 2025-2026 season. The updated 2025-2026 COVID shots, targeting LP.8.1, have been approved by the FDA with restrictions for those over 65 or at high risk.
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The Novavax vaccine's approach to new strains
Novavax is the only non-mRNA COVID-19 vaccine available in the US. It is a protein-based vaccine that helps prevent COVID-19. Unlike other vaccines, Novavax directly injects a version of the spike protein into the body, along with another ingredient that stimulates the immune system, leading to the production of antibodies and T-cells.
The Novavax vaccine has been updated for the 2025-2026 season to more closely match currently circulating strains. It is formulated to target the JN.1 variant, a subvariant of the omicron JN.1 lineage. The 2024-2025 version of the vaccine was also targeted at the JN.1 variant, which was the dominant strain in May 2024. The updated Novavax vaccine is expected to be available in early fall 2025.
The Novavax vaccine has been shown to be highly effective against the original COVID-19 strain. A late-stage UK study found that the vaccine was 96% effective against the original strain and 100% effective at preventing severe disease. The vaccine was also 86.3% effective against the variant first identified in the UK, but less effective against the variant identified in South Africa.
The Novavax vaccine is recommended for adults and adolescents aged 12 and older. It is approved for high-risk children over the age of 12. The vaccine has been fully approved by the FDA, but there are some restrictions on who is eligible to receive it.
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The Johnson & Johnson vaccine's expiration
According to the CDC, the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccines are designed to more effectively target the JN.1 lineage of the Omicron variant. The vaccines are updated to offer the best protection against the currently circulating strains. The CDC recommends the 2024-2025 vaccine for most adults aged 18 and older, including those who have previously been vaccinated or infected with COVID-19.
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is no longer available in the United States, as of May 2025. The expiration of this vaccine and the previous year's Novavax vaccine (2023-2024) may have contributed to the CDC's recommendation for the new 2024-2025 vaccine. The CDC advises that vaccine protection wanes over time, and the latest vaccine is formulated to offer improved protection against the evolving strains of COVID-19.
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine, also known as Janssen-Ad26.COV2.S, was one of the first COVID-19 vaccines to be administered. It was available before the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were updated to target different iterations of the Omicron strain. The original COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, introduced in December 2020, protected against the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, they have been replaced to address new variants.
The continuous evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the emergence of new variants, such as the Omicron variant and its subvariants, have made it crucial to update the vaccines. The development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 is an ongoing process, and the understanding of the virus and its variants is constantly deepening. The CDC's recommendation for the 2024-2025 vaccine reflects the need to stay up to date with vaccine protection as the virus continues to mutate.
While the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is no longer available, the CDC emphasizes the importance of vaccination for individuals aged 6 months and older. The 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine is designed to offer broader protection against the latest circulating strains, and it is recommended that eligible individuals receive this updated vaccine to maintain their protection against COVID-19.
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The XFG variant's vaccine evasion
The XFG Variants Vaccine Evasion
The XFG variant of COVID-19, also known as "Stratus", is a highly infectious strain that has been spreading rapidly across the United States. First detected in the US in March, it has since become the dominant variant in the country. XFG is a recombinant or hybrid of two existing Omicron strains, LF.7 and LP.8.1.2, which gives it a unique ability to bind more easily to cells in the body and cause infection. This ability to evade COVID-19 antibodies, whether from prior infection or vaccination, is due to several mutations in its spike protein.
Despite this, the World Health Organization (WHO) has assessed the public health risk posed by XFG to be "low". Current data does not indicate that Stratus causes more severe illness, hospitalization, or death. In fact, the WHO has stated that currently approved COVID-19 vaccines are expected to remain effective against the XFG variant. This is because the vaccines have been updated annually since 2022 to target the most predominant strains, including Omicron, and provide protection from severe disease.
However, there is some concern about the effectiveness of the vaccines against new variants. The recent firing of the director of the CDC and new restrictions from the FDA about who will be eligible for COVID-19 vaccines have sparked confusion among the public and concern from health experts. While the 2024-2025 vaccines were expected to work well against new strains, the updated 2025-2026 shots have been approved with restrictions on eligibility. The FDA has limited the shots to people over the age of 65 and those with certain conditions that put them at high risk for severe COVID.
As a result, there is a growing divide in the United States regarding vaccinations. Some states are rolling back or eliminating mandates, while others are taking steps to make the COVID-19 vaccine more readily available in pharmacies. This has led to confusion and uncertainty about the best course of action to protect oneself and loved ones from COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses.
To address this, health experts recommend focusing on the simple goal of staying as healthy as possible. Vaccination is still a critical tool in the fight against COVID-19, and individuals are advised to speak with their doctors to determine their best course of protection.
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The FDA's approval of the 2025-2026 vaccine
The SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for COVID-19, has a high degree of genomic mutation, leading to the emergence of various variants with unique characteristics. The World Health Organization (WHO) has classified these variants based on their impact on global public health, designating some as variants of concern (VOCs) due to their increased transmissibility, virulence, and ability to evade existing immune responses. The continuous evolution of the virus, as evident in the rise of variants like Delta, Omicron, and the more recent FLiRT strain, underscores the urgent need for updated vaccines.
The 2025-2026 vaccine formulation has been specifically designed to address the latest variants and provide improved protection against severe disease. Building on the knowledge gained from previous vaccine iterations, this updated vaccine leverages advancements in scientific understanding and technology to offer broader immunity. The approval process for this vaccine involved rigorous evaluation and collaboration between the FDA and leading health organizations, ensuring that the vaccine meets the highest standards of safety and efficacy.
While the previous vaccine formulations, including the 2023-2024 version, played a crucial role in reducing severe illness, hospitalization, and death, the 2025-2026 vaccine is expected to offer even more robust protection. It is anticipated to be effective against a wider range of variants, including those that may emerge during the upcoming flu season. The approval of this vaccine underscores the ongoing commitment to developing preventive measures that stay ahead of the virus's rapid evolution.
The availability of the 2025-2026 vaccine will be a critical tool in the ongoing public health response to COVID-19. It is recommended that individuals across all age groups, regardless of their previous vaccination status, receive this updated vaccine to maximize protection. Furthermore, the development and approval of this vaccine serve as a testament to the adaptability and resilience of the global scientific community in the face of a persistent and evolving health threat. As the battle against COVID-19 continues, ongoing research, surveillance, and vaccine updates will remain essential to staying one step ahead of the virus.
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Frequently asked questions
The 2024-2025 coronavirus vaccines were expected to work well against new predominant strains and other variants that were expected to become more common. The vaccines are still expected to be effective at preventing severe disease, hospitalization, and death from COVID.
The XFG COVID-19 variant, also known as "Stratus", is the dominant variant circulating in the U.S. as of September 2025. It is a recombinant or hybrid of two existing omicron strains, LF.7 and LP.8.1.2, and has several unique mutations in its spike protein.
The WHO has stated that currently approved COVID vaccines are expected to remain effective against the XFG variant. The vaccines are safe and highly effective at preventing severe illness, complications, and death from COVID-19.
The coronavirus vaccine is available in various locations, including pharmacies and health clinics. It is recommended to contact your doctor or healthcare provider to determine the best location for you.
